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Farms Under Threat

Farms Under Threat is AFT’s multi-year effort to advance cutting-edge solutions for farmland protection. We use high-resolution spatial analysis tools to identify exactly where agricultural land has been converted to urban and low-density residential land uses—and to anticipate future threats. We have also done a deep analysis of every state’s policies for protecting farmland and ranchland, promoting agricultural viability, and helping transfer land to the next generation of farmers and ranchers.

Farms Under Threat 2040: Choosing an Abundant Future

Farms Under Threat 2040: Choosing an Abundant Future projects three alternative development scenarios from 2016 to 2040 — Business as Usual, Runaway Sprawl and Better Built Cities. The report shows that development choices have a significant effect on the future of farmland and ranchland and urges Americans to embrace Better Built Cities to safeguard local farms and ranches, bolster the global food system, and improve people’s daily lives.

Farms Under Threat 2040 - Choosing an Abundant Future State-Specific Webinar Series

During the summer of 2022, the NALN will host a series of state-specific webinars digging into the findings for 35 states from AFT's new report "Farms Under Threat: 2040". We will look at the spatial data and development scenarios and talk about how this data will be helpful to planners, land protection practitioners, policymakers, and advocates as they strengthen and expand agricultural land retention and protection efforts. Registration links for all the webinars can be found at the link below.

Find your state and register

Gain Access to our Data

Farms Under Threat 2040:

American Farmland Trust, in partnership with Conservation Science Partners and the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, modeled how development and climate change will affect agricultural land under three contrasting development scenarios from 2016 to 2040. The differences among them represent broad policy pathways that the country might take.

Gain access to the future scenario development data layers and summary statistics for use in your own work. Take a few minutes to fill out our Spatial Data Request form, gain access to our data, and let us know what you’re working on!

The history of Farms Under Threat

AFT has led research into the loss of America’s farms and ranches since 1986.

Learn more

In the Press

Have a question or want to collaborate? Get in touch with our team: