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NEW REPORT: Smarter Land Use Planning is Urgently Needed to Safeguard Midwest Land That Grows Our Food

WASHINGTON, DC – Smart growth and investment in Midwest downtowns and main streets must occur now to secure the land that grows our food, according to American Farmland Trust’s new report Farms Under Threat 2040: Choosing an Abundant Future and the accompanying web mapping tool.

AFT’s Farms Under Threat research has shown that by 2040, as many as 3,165,000 acres – nearly 5,000 square miles of farmland may be lost to urban and low-density conversion across the Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin). Six Midwest states (IL, IA, OH, IN, WI, and MN) make the top 10 list of states when assessing acres of farmland converted to urban development by 2040. This loss will disproportionately impact smaller farms that often serve local markets with fresh produce, eggs, dairy and meat. Small and peri-urban farms also tend to incubate new farmers and are instrumental in navigating supply chain disruptions currently experienced at grocery stores across the nation.

By 2040, agriculture in the Midwest will also be significantly constrained by water due to impacts of climate change. As temperatures continue to rise in the Midwest, precipitation is expected to become more intense in late winter and early spring, followed by drier summer months. The Midwest is also experiencing a market surge to meet renewable energy goals. These climatic factors will lead to increased flooding, compromised drinking water, reduced air quality and greater pressures on agricultural land.

Of the seven Midwest states, Ohio farmland will be most impacted, followed by Wisconsin, and then Michigan.

Illinois 

• If recent trends continue, 363,375 acres of Illinois’s farmland will be paved over, fragmented, or converted to uses that jeopardize agriculture by 2040. That represents an area nearly 2.5 times larger than the City of Chicago and equates to the loss of more than 1,500 farms and 3,400 farm jobs.
• Will, Kane, and Kendall counties will be the hardest hit, with Will County ranking 2nd of all counties in the nation for loss of cropland due to urban development.
• In the worst-case scenario of runaway sprawl, Illinois could lose as much as 448,371 acres of farmland. As the nation’s leader in the production of soybeans, corn and swine, this loss would be far-reaching.
• By encouraging smart development, investing in farmland easements, and supporting the next generation of farmers, Illinoisans can save 211,400 acres of farmland. That’s equivalent to saving 1,900 agricultural jobs and $123 million in farm output.
• Protecting Illinois’s farmland from poorly planned development and residential sprawl is of both local and national importance given that 81 percent of farmland conversion will occur on some of the most productive and versatile land in the country.

Ohio

• If recent trends continue, 518,475 of Ohio’s farmland will be paved over, fragmented, or converted to uses that jeopardize agriculture by 2040. That represents an area more than three times the size of Columbus and equates to the loss of 3,976 farms and more than 8,138 farm jobs.
• Warren, Licking, and Delaware Counties will be the hardest hit.
• In the worst-case scenario of runaway sprawl, Ohio could lose as much as 696,802 acres of farmland. As one of the largest egg-farming states in the nation and a top producer of corn and soybean, this loss in OH would be far-reaching.
• By encouraging smart development, investing in farmland easements, and supporting the next generation of farmers, Ohioans can save 398,100 acres of farmland. That’s the equivalent of saving 2,928 agricultural jobs and $203 million in farm output.
• Protecting Ohio’s farmland from poorly planned development and residential sprawl is of both local and national importance given that 73 percent of farmland conversion will occur on some of the most productive and versatile land in the country.

Wisconsin 

• If recent trends continue, 515,236 acres of Wisconsin’s farmland will be paved over, fragmented, or converted to uses that jeopardize agriculture by 2040. That represents an area more than eight times the size of the City of Milwaukee and equates to the loss of 2,403 farms and 6,383 farm jobs.
• Dane, Waukesha, and St. Croix Counties will be the hardest hit.
• In the worst-case scenario of runaway sprawl, Wisconsin could lose as much as 688,002 acres of farmland. As a top producer in the nation of cheese, cranberries, and potatoes, this loss in WI would be far-reaching.
• By encouraging smart development, investing in farmland easements, and supporting the next generation of farmers, Wisconsinites can save 383,200 acres of farmland. That’s the equivalent of saving 4,628 agricultural jobs and $273 million in farm output.
• Protecting Wisconsin’s farmland from poorly planned development and residential sprawl is of both local and national importance given that 67 percent of farmland conversion will occur on some of the most productive and versatile land in the country.

“The tools exist to save our region’s farmland: by embracing smart growth, protecting agricultural lands, and supporting the next generation of farmers, we can save 1.8 million acres of farmland in the Midwest,” said Kristopher Reynolds, AFT Midwest Regional Director. “Communities need to double down on protecting the land we have left, whether that’s through permanent farmland easements, land-use planning for smart growth, or property tax relief. This is an important opportunity to invest in urban density and limit the continued expansion of urban growth boundaries.”

For a brief summary of national results: National media release

Register for August 8, 2022, Illinois Webinar here

Register for August 5, 2022, Ohio Webinar here

Register for August 4, 2022, Wisconsin Webinar here

Register for August 10, 2022, Indiana Webinar here

Register for August 11, 2022, Iowa Webinar here

Register for August 3, 2022, Minnesota Webinar here

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American Farmland Trust is the only national organization that takes a holistic approach to agriculture, focusing on the land itself, the agricultural practices used on that land, and the farmers and ranchers who do the work. AFT launched the conservation agriculture movement and continues to raise public awareness through our No Farms, No Food message. Since our founding in 1980, AFT has helped permanently protect over 6.8 million acres of agricultural lands, advanced environmentally-sound farming practices on millions of additional acres and supported thousands of farm families.